And this is why you check your probabilities…

A bit more testing for the Fickle RPG idea of rolling Triples being a critical success, and all the other allocated Fickle dice counting as successes. I looked up some odds online, but sat down today and wrote a quick program to do 30 million rolls and check for sure.

Unfortunately the idea falls apart at around 7 dice, and is way too likely to happen. Which means play would devolve into everyone rolling their entire dice pool as Fickle, hoping for triples, and most likely tying and having the acting player winning.

Which is too bad because I had just thought up the cool nickname of “going for the Trinity”.

Chance of Triples
 3D6 = 2.8%
 4D6 = 9.7%
 5D6 = 21.3%
 6D6 = 36.7%
 7D6 = 54.1%
 8D6 = 70.7%
 9D6 = 84.2%
10D6 = 93.2%

“Quads” of 4 matches suffers the same fate, just at a later point with bigger dice pool sizes.

So back to the drawing board.


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